Honestly, I’d trust NK with the bomb more than Iran.
Nobody wants Iran to have the bomb. The issue is that there were already ways to prevent that outcome without the bloodshed of this potential prelude to WW3.
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Well, the difference would be that it’s a country led by radical islamists who have vowed to annihilate another country.
I see. I kind of hear similar things from Israel leadership these days. But I understand maybe comments from one country leadership matter more than another.
i just hope this whole thing stop soon because we might not call all this world war but it feels like there is a war everywhere we look
Well, last year we were told in no uncertain terms that their program had been ‘obliterated’.
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Wrong. They can buy oil from Brazil and others. I think they got only 10% of their oil from Iran.
Also Russia is very happy. Maybe they won’t get drones, but the oil price has risen enough for them to make money again.
China might be unhappy if they block the sea routes, which they won’t.
Might be more about the strait/region.
45-50 percent of China’s crude oil imports transit the Strait of Hormuz
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Anyone else buying the current dip? I’m already fully invested, so unfortunately my only dry powder is margin. I put the first tranche to work today, will keep an eye on things, and probably deploy the next one next week.
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I wish I could. No dry powder 
It’s not a serious dip though.
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I agree. Most of my limit orders were not executed. I still think AI will bring the dip, not war.
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I don’t think it makes sense yet. There’s not much of a general dip and things could get a lot worse.
I have been buying he SAAS crash.
Better than absolute idiots who have vowed to annihilate yet another country.
And actually did it many times since 1945, unlike Iran.
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What do we think is going to happen when the Iran war eventually winds down and the straits open?
When there’s eventually peace in Ukraine?
What so we think about US midterms?
I can’t help but think these are all bull cases.
Well - in long term everything is a bull case because that is general direction for equities. Now what we don’t know is if we are looking at 5-6% annual returns like past or 1-2% for the next decade.
For sure - if world goes back to where it was before Ukraine war started, we were in a positive environment. Few men in the world decided it was not a good situation and then appended the situation since then.
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Yeah, sure, in a 5 year rolling period I believe there have been extremely few (2-3 at most?) negative inflation-adjusted returns for the ACWI, but I am wondering in the shorter term, especially since we have some concrete events that could impact the markets.
The strait is apparently open, just that no insurer insures going through it.
So the war needs to wind down enough for it for that to happen again.
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That’s what it means for the straits to be closed.
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All bull cases in my opinion too.
The questions I’m asking myself are:
- when will they happen?
- what will have happened in the mean time that could either tank the markets or make them soar?
My opinion:
War in Iran winding down: either far into the future or Trump TACO.
→ far into the future: I can’t time it. Might as well not build my portfolio strategy around that event.
→ Trump TACO → still turmoil in the area that can meaningfully affect the price of energy and the value of stocks + US credibility even more affected than it was before → meaningful but potentially slow change in the world order. Make your bets.
War in Ukraine ending: far into the future. I can’t time it. Might as well not build my portfolio strategy around that event.
US Midterms:
→ can’t save US credibility all by themselves. Might not counter the re-alignment of the world order away from the US.
→ Dems might very well not be able to grow spines despite having a potential majority in both chambers → things might keep being chaotic for some time.
Generally, I think the US are weakening themselves a bit more each war they start. At some point, their leadership might be meaningfully challenged, at which point, all bets are off.
My stance: adopt an investment strategy that allows for your survival in all scenarios and don’t make following it dependent on world events. If you want to take some one-off bets on some events and it fits your objectives and risk profile, do it with money you are willing to loose and have fun.
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Makes sense. What is your strategy?
Right now? Uninvested through lack of available assets.
I’ll get a big windfall this March. My intent is to invest it in a mix of EXUS (equities, developed ex-US), ZGLD (gold) and CSBGC0 (“long” Swiss treasuries), leveraged to a level where I can cover the interests with my salary and expect to withstand a drawdown of 80% based on behavior derived from historical data.
Longer term, I’ll probably put aside an amount for stock picking.
I’m conservative. As all fiat goes to 0 in the long run, I am in for Bitcoin, some Swiss fiat, some gold and some Swiss shares.
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