# Chronicles of 2025
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293
**Category:** Investing / Others
**Created:** [January 22, 2025, 10:21am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293 "2025-01-22T10:21:49Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 23
### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [March 6, 2025, 8:40pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/448 "2025-03-06T20:40:46Z")
They may, they may not š
There are many scenarios where the next 10 years may see the S&P500 give 2-3% annualised.
Now if you want a GOOD LAUGH picture US policymakers kick non-US investors off IBKR, Iāll be exactly like this: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0lV6uMtcz8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0lV6uMtcz8)
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [March 8, 2025, 9:44am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/449 "2025-03-08T09:44:29Z")
Hereās a funky mind-copulating thought I had last night: āif one stacks cash in anticipation for a fall in the market, or is planning to raid emergency funds to buy a dip, it makes no sense that they donāt just sell right nowā.
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### Author:  [@Quack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Quack)
#### Post date: [March 8, 2025, 9:51am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/450 "2025-03-08T09:51:34Z")
I agree that if you have decided to stop buying stocks and accumulate cash in anticipation of a crash, then you probably ought to sell some stocks if you want to be perfectly rational and logical.
However humans are not logical nor rational. I for one have a rule that I will ānever sellā my equity exposure to avoid the potentially catastrophic risk of panic selling during a downturn. So for me to implement a reduction in equity exposure, my only option is to cease investing and hoard cash. (Iām not doing this though, itās just for argumentās sake)
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [March 8, 2025, 9:59am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/451 "2025-03-08T09:59:09Z")
> [@Quack](#):
>
> I agree that if you have decided to stop buying stocks and accumulate cash in anticipation of a crash, then you probably ought to sell some stocks if you want to be perfectly rational and logical.
Youāre exactly on point. I consider myself very pragmatic and rational, so do my family, friends and coworkers, however I felt I caught myself doing something illogical by saving cash - never stopped saving - since last June, since I **did and still do** believe in a crash, first due to P/E and now increasingly due to volatility in a euphoric market which, in my opinion, just needs a few sparks to burn up.
I plugged it all into gold last Monday but mostly thinking itāll run up counter to a dip in stocks so Iāll plug it in stocks when that happens. Have set some sell X/buy VWRL targets for VWRL which is my main investment.
> [@Quack](#):
>
> I for one have a rule that I will ānever sellā my equity exposure to avoid the potentially catastrophic risk of panic selling during a downturn. So for me to implement a reduction in equity exposure, my only option is to cease investing and hoard cash. (Iām not doing this though, itās just for argumentās sake)
Same, I donāt plan to ever be uninvested, if anything the only thing that stopped me selling is the idea that I am giving away dividends.
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### Author:  [@ma0](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/ma0)
#### Post date: [March 8, 2025, 3:33pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/452 "2025-03-08T15:33:13Z")
Wrong.
You hedge the fall of the market by stashing cash. If it crash, you have cash to buy it, if it doesnāt, you have your ETFs.
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [March 8, 2025, 8:36pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/453 "2025-03-08T20:36:14Z")
Thereās no real right or wrong, other than panic selling.
Edit: theoreticians will come and talk nebulous things like opportunity cost.
Edit 2: hedging I agree with conceptually, but in reality it also depends on the portfolioās size and saving rate. If one can save 2,000/month and their portfolio is 500k then the āhedgeā is not a hedge, itās peanuts.
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### Author:  [@assemblyrequired](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/assemblyrequired)
#### Post date: [March 8, 2025, 8:38pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/454 "2025-03-08T20:38:49Z")
I heard that argument before, and I donāt think it plays fair.
If you were 100% sure thereās a crash coming, you should be selling all stocks, and it would be illogical to still keep some. But you cantāt be 100% sure, everyone is guessing what will happen, and in that case, you stay invested in case the crash doesnāt come.
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [March 8, 2025, 8:42pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/455 "2025-03-08T20:42:58Z")
I havenāt heard it before, other than in my own head. Itās not an argument, just a thought. Of course nobody legally knows whatāll happen and when, otherwise thereād be acting upon and making a ton of money at it.
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### Author:  [@Dr.PI](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Dr.PI)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 10:31am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/456 "2025-03-09T10:31:30Z")
27 posts were merged into an existing topic: [Thoughts on portfolio diversification [2025]](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/thoughts-on-portfolio-diversification-2025/14892/41)
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 1:34pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/462 "2025-03-09T13:34:39Z")
> [@Chronicles of fat years \[2024-2027 Edition\]](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-fat-years-2024-2027-edition/12246/762):
>
> The US outperformance was just crazy over the last decade.
> ā¦
> Also US valuations get more and more ridiculous. It cannot go on like this forever, there is a ceiling in valuations.
> ā¦
> Most of US outperformance over ex-US came from USD strength and valuation multiples increasing. Which both are unlikely to continue on forever.
Fast forward to 2025 ā¦
([Source](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/03/is-international-diversification-finally-working/))
Beginning of tables turning or just a Trump induced hiccup?
Country breakdown:
([Source](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/03/is-international-diversification-finally-working/))
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### Author:  [@assemblyrequired](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/assemblyrequired)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 2:55pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/463 "2025-03-09T14:55:29Z")
Insert _why not both?_ meme
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### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 6:53pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/464 "2025-03-09T18:53:17Z")
> **[US blacklists Switzerland for "unfair trade"](https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/multinational-companies/usa-puts-switzerland-on-list-of-countries-with-unfair-trade-practices/88983677)**
>
> The United States has placed Switzerland on a list of countries with "unfair trade practices".
Coming for us now too.
I mostly have unspeakable things left to say about the whole Trump situation and I donāt think I remember the last time I felt as angry about world affairs.
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### Author:  [@cubanpete\_the\_swiss](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/cubanpete_the_swiss)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 7:19pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/465 "2025-03-09T19:19:18Z")
I think this is not the first time that happens. The reason last time was the artificial keeping of low value for the Swiss Franc. That sounds absurd as the Swiss Franc is one of the only currency that performed better than the U.S. Dollar, but the Swiss National Bank then kept the CHF at an artificial low level to the EUR.
For the tax we have VAT on everything, even much lower than other countries. The U,S. has no countrywide VAT. This difference may count as an import tax U.S, exporters have to pay but Swiss exporters donāt.
The best outcome would be to send the VAT where it belongs; to hell. We could replace it by a cash flow tax for companies. But as this outcome is very unlikely I suppose the U.S. will simply add a tax of the same percentage to Swiss exports.
I hate those nonsense taxes, VAT has destroyed many businesses in Europe already. But the solution should be that we leave it and not that the U.S. charges it too!
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### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 7:20pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/466 "2025-03-09T19:20:02Z")
I would say - all this shows one thing, US is not as exceptional as everyone seem to believe. When a country goes after every country in world to try to squeeze them, this clear shows they are desperate and not really strong
Having said that - I think this whole notion of complaining about trade imbalance is very childish. US folks donāt but foreign goods because of low tariffs , they buy them because they like them or they are cheap. Just by adding tariffs doesnāt change any of these facts.
For example -: if I want to buy NVDIA chips, would i produce them myself if CH were to add 100% tariffs. No
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### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 7:35pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/467 "2025-03-09T19:35:04Z")
I really donāt get how VAT came into a debate about tariffs. Itās probably just because the US is one of a handful of country not having VAT so they donāt understand it.
VAT is a tax on consumers, not on companies, and itās agnostic to imports (US imports are taxed in the same way as internally produced items). If US wants to introduce VAT they can go for it (and actually itās more efficient than sales tax, because it doesnāt stack when things cross borders).
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### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 7:36pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/468 "2025-03-09T19:36:50Z")
> [@Abs\_max](#):
>
> Having said that - I think this whole notion of complaining about trade imbalance is very childish. US folks donāt but foreign goods because of low tariffs , they buy them because they like them or they are cheap. Just by adding tariffs doesnāt change any of these facts.
Also it doesnāt take into account the services flow, US is a huge exporter of services (I think trade balance might even be in favor of US when looking at goods & services instead of just goods).
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### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 7:47pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/469 "2025-03-09T19:47:38Z")
Yes they ignore it because they know Europe has no option but to use cloud services or other services which are from US.
Hopefully some new companies will be formed in Europe to compete
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### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 7:54pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/471 "2025-03-09T19:54:16Z")
Letās focus on economic/policy issues? (I donāt see how that line of argument ends up with anything constructiveā¦)
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 8:01pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/472 "2025-03-09T20:01:53Z")
> [@Tony1337](#):
>
> Coming for us now too.
As pointed out by @cubanpete_the_swiss: this is not the first time. And the Swiss National Bank openly admits that they intervene in the currency market, which, by the US, is a no-no, especially if the USD is part of it, even if only indirectly.
> [@cubanpete\_the\_swiss](#):
>
> The best outcome would be to send the VAT where it belongs; to hell.
Your words in Godās ears. Iām not holding my breath, though.
> [@Abs\_max](#):
>
> I would say - all this shows one thing, US is not as exceptional as everyone seem to believe.
> ā¦
> For example -: if I want to buy NVDIA chips, would i produce them myself if CH were to add 100% tariffs. No
Hereās the thing, though:
(a) the guy at the table with the biggest gun (by far) is Uncle Sam. Uncle Sam currently thinks heās being treated unfairly. Doesnāt really matter whether heās right or wrong as heās holding the biggest gun and thinks itās fair (to threaten) to use it.
(b) you can neither produce nor buy the latest NVIDIA chips unless Uncle Sam agrees, even if the single most critical chip producing equipment piece is made in the Nederlands by ASML and even if these chips are mostly (all?) manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
Uncle Sam says where ASML can export their equipment to and Uncle Sam says who can import NVIDIA chips (of course thereās loopholes and what not, but the playground rules are established by Uncle Sam, and enforcement is up to Uncle Sam).
As for the further remarks about this being āchildishā and not taking into account this view or that angle: youāre (IMO) mostly right, but does that matter to anyone actually deciding on these policies?
And when was life ever fair, to add insult to injury?
(Just to be clear: I think I mostly agree with you, Iām just challenging you on idealistic desires and views versus current _Realpolitik_ and likely outcomes)
As suggested by @nabalzbhf, letās focus on economic/policy issues and trying to stay clear of mostly policial views.
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### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [March 9, 2025, 8:08pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/473 "2025-03-09T20:08:22Z")
I agree
For now not much can be done
But this will lead to a time when nothing can be done to reverse the ill effects of such policies
I just hope it happens during my lifetime š
What is great though is that these polices are supposed to be helping US but all assets that are driven by US government are suffering (S&P, Russell, BTC, Job creation in US, inflation in US, even Tesla:))
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