# Chronicles of 2025
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293
**Category:** Investing / Others
**Created:** [January 22, 2025, 10:21am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293 "2025-01-22T10:21:49Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 2
### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [January 10, 2025, 1:56pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/22 "2025-01-10T13:56:56Z")
The USD is just not stopping currently. Absolutely ridiculous. Another 0.5% jump after the job report.
I honestly don’t care much for market volatility, but my paychecks buying me less USD every month is really damn annoying. Double whammy. market getting more and more expensive and my salary paying me even less stocks. Reall not fun combo.
We are now lower than 1 3/4 years ago. In that time USD cash also paid ~9% interest and the CHF ~2%.
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### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [January 10, 2025, 2:20pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/23 "2025-01-10T14:20:37Z")
But doesn’t it also mean that your actually portfolio has appreciated in value in CHF terms?
I assume it’s much larger than new contributions.
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### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [January 10, 2025, 2:28pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/24 "2025-01-10T14:28:43Z")
Correct.
It is much larger, but not yet at a point where new contributions aren‘t still significant.
But 2/3 of my margin loan is also USD (of course with offsetting assets)
It just feels bad paying into the market with new money.
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [January 10, 2025, 4:36pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/25 "2025-01-10T16:36:29Z")
\
> [@Chronicles of fat years \[2024-2027 Edition\]](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-fat-years-2024-2027-edition/12246/939):
>
> my paychecks buying me less USD every month is really damn annoying
That’s why about 80% of my paycheck now comes in in USD.
> [@Abs\_max](#):
>
> But doesn’t it also mean that your actually portfolio has appreciated in value in CHF terms?
Indeed.
Double whammy.
Follow me for more advice on taking unhedged and irresponsible currency risk!
\
All meant in jest, let’s not start another hedging vs. not sub-thread, pretty please …? 😇 😉
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### Author:  [@Dr.PI](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Dr.PI)
#### Post date: [January 10, 2025, 4:38pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/26 "2025-01-10T16:38:11Z")
> [@anon17469660](#):
>
> All meant in jest, let’s not start another hedging vs. not sub-thread, pretty please …? 😇 😉
Okay.
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [January 12, 2025, 8:38am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/27 "2025-01-12T08:38:43Z")
Jurien Timmer of Fidelity:
> we remain in the sweet spot of favorable financial conditions and growing earnings. That’s the upper left quadrant of the market cycle clock below. The risk for 2025 is that we move from top left to top right, with earnings growth remaining positive while financial conditions tighten up.
>
> Perhaps the last few weeks of December were already a hint in that direction, with market breadth falling away and only the Mag 7 running the show. If so, rather than expecting a continuation of 2024’s “bullish broadening” momentum, perhaps in 2025 we should look for a repeat of 2018 (growing earnings and rising rates) or even 2023 (narrow absolute and relative leadership).
([Source](https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1878159191900336131))
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### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [January 12, 2025, 9:14am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/28 "2025-01-12T09:14:28Z")
I wonder how they measure financial conditions. I didn’t think that financial conditions were very tight over the past few years.
I feel the trace should be substantiallly offset leftwards.
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 3:09pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/29 "2025-01-15T15:09:17Z")
Wakey wakey, the day is fat 😛
The “year” is a nothingburger, yet.
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### Author:  [@dbu](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/dbu)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 4:26pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/30 "2025-01-15T16:26:28Z")
Yes indeed, I second that.
Not much profit YTD.
(Edit: rhyme continuation attempt went unnoticed, fail ☹)
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 5:26pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/31 "2025-01-15T17:26:03Z")
One for our doomers and preppers out there:
Composition of the United States Public Debt by Security
([Source](https://x.com/EddyElfenbein/status/1879581613971087723))
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### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 6:04pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/32 "2025-01-15T18:04:34Z")
What’s government account series?
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 6:11pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/33 "2025-01-15T18:11:03Z")
According to the provided link, this is the source of the data: [Monthly Statement of the Public Debt (MSPD) | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-statement-public-debt/summary-of-treasury-securities-outstanding)
Good luck in finding out what the government account series is. 😉
(IMO, it doesn’t really matter from a doomer perspective, though: leave out the brown part, adjust the extension of the y axis, cry foul regardless)
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### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 6:15pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/34 "2025-01-15T18:15:19Z")
Yea sure doesn’t really matter, most is just government bonds. i was just curious for curiosity’s sake 🙂
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### Author:  [@ternes11](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/ternes11)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 6:46pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/35 "2025-01-15T18:46:26Z")
Wow, a little more than half of debt is maturing in next 10 years. Crazy amounts
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 7:17pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/36 "2025-01-15T19:17:04Z")
> [@ternes11](#):
>
> Wow, a little more than half of debt is maturing in next 10 years.
_Taking a grandpa look and leaning in not to be heard_ “don’t worry, we’ll just print some more bonds, we’re good for it”.
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [January 15, 2025, 7:32pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/37 "2025-01-15T19:32:33Z")
Grandpa continues, _whispering_, "Son, what other country of _our size_ is going to take _our place_?
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [January 21, 2025, 4:21pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/38 "2025-01-21T16:21:21Z")
All predictions on the S&P500 closing for 2025.
[Source](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/every-major-wall-street-analysts-s-p-500-forecast-for-2025)
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### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [January 21, 2025, 5:29pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/39 "2025-01-21T17:29:51Z")
“Insert Buffett quote here”
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### Author:  [@afstand](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/afstand)
#### Post date: [January 21, 2025, 5:50pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/40 "2025-01-21T17:50:43Z")
I give a 20% chance that SPX does not fit between the boundaries of these forecasts.
Wonder how established companies like City take part of these shameless acts. They think everyone forgets it anyway.
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [January 21, 2025, 6:09pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/41 "2025-01-21T18:09:53Z")
Check this: [What is your investment strategy for 2025? - #3 by Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/what-is-your-investment-strategy-for-2025/14996/3)
If we want to stick our finger in the air and write articles about correlations one could say “they get it wrong every third year in a row, the last 4-5 years”. The boundaries are -25 to +20%, that’s pretty wide, it’ll be somewhere there. For sure the line will move to the right, whether it’ll be green or red…who knows 😃
Edit: in China it’ll be red if in the RoW it’s green because…because.
> [@Tony1337](#):
>
> “Insert Buffett quote here”
Which one, he has loads 😃
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