# Chronicles of 2025
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293
**Category:** Investing / Others
**Created:** [January 22, 2025, 10:21am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293 "2025-01-22T10:21:49Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 184
### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [December 2, 2025, 5:13pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3800 "2025-12-02T17:13:12Z")
> [@Tony1337](#):
>
> Btw Michael Burry is shorting Palantir and Nvidia with like 80% of his portfolio and over a billion.
Just listened to a podcast where Michael Burry did an interview with [Michael Lewis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lewis):
https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/09jXJQOVKzteGCSTBP5kJV?si=c7125bb43ab24f35&utm_source=oembed
I have to say, after listening to this I’m a little infatuated with M.D. Michael Burry. I love this guy.
Very grounded.
But to get back to your quote: financial media seems to have misreported the short position and they probably misinterpreted Burry’s 13-F filing (skip to minute 14 for learning about the details). His short position (according to him) is 10 million dollars …[$]
I haven’t fact checked this myself (apparently the 13-F reporting for options is messed up), but I can totally see how a headline like _“Michael Burry (of The Big Short) has a **billion** short position on Palantir and Nvidia”_ will generate more clicks than _“Well, looks like Michael Burry bet $10M on Palantir and Nvidia going down over the next two years”_.
* * *
$ For those interested in the details:
- Palantir is trading at $200.
- Burry buys 50’000 Puts on Palantir expiring in two years at strike $50. He thinks they’re going to $30.
- Since each option contract is for 100 shares, the press reports this as a _$200 x 50’000 x 100 = $1B_ short bet.
- In reality, the bet cost Burry _50’000 x $2 x 100 = $10M_.
---
### Author:  [@EPeon](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/EPeon)
#### Post date: [December 3, 2025, 6:56am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3801 "2025-12-03T06:56:20Z")
> [@Mirager](#):
>
> Legal is another key one, and it was figured out within weeks of chatGPT launching, I remember a comparison of LLMs vs junior associates, the LLMs wiped the floor with the associates for both speed and accuracy, clearly large, structured data sets are the LLMs’ playground.
Well, there clearly is room for improvement here. I asked the free version of chatgpt questions around private enterprise valuation for tax purposes (Kreisschreiben 28 for the geekier amongst us) and it kept hallucinating about what it says, coming up with quotes that I welcomed as they would have supported what I wanted (to lower my tax bill😉) - except they were nowhere to be found in the actual document, or interpretations. When confronted, first it kept making excuses about having paraphrased, only when pushed admitting it made things up (‚thank you for keeping a sharp eye‘)…
---
### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [December 3, 2025, 7:08am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3802 "2025-12-03T07:08:28Z")
> [@EPeon](#):
>
> When confronted, first it kept making excuses about having paraphrased, only when pushed admitting it made things up (‚thank you for keeping a sharp eye‘)…
That’s really funny isn’t it, clearly it’s made to behave like a human would 😛
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### Author:  [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)
#### Post date: [December 3, 2025, 7:08am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3803 "2025-12-03T07:08:55Z")
The real cash flow generating use case will tolerate this margin of error.
(_neuralink porn_).
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### Author:  [@EPeon](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/EPeon)
#### Post date: [December 3, 2025, 7:45am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3804 "2025-12-03T07:45:04Z")
> [@anon17469660](#):
>
> In reality, the bet cost Burry _50’000 x $2 x 100 = $10M_.
For a $100m payoff if things go his way 🙂
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [December 3, 2025, 2:57pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3805 "2025-12-03T14:57:46Z")
Or $250m if Palantir goes to zero … 😂
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### Author:  [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)
#### Post date: [December 3, 2025, 11:10pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3806 "2025-12-03T23:10:46Z")
Thanks for sharing.
Burry is absolutely right when he says bitcoin is worthless. And that people don’t get what they’re buying. People may be stupid.
But this is the point. Markets and the world is driven by human beings. Mostly less intelligent than this beautiful mind burry is. If they feel something stupid is right, then you have your bitcoin at 1M.
Being right does not always make you rich.
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### Author:  [@Helix](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Helix)
#### Post date: [December 4, 2025, 4:45am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3807 "2025-12-04T04:45:33Z")
I feel, sniffing out bullshit coming from the LLM is a skill like Google-fu. One pattern I saw in current ChatGPT is that it throws a lot of tangentially related information at you if it can’t find an answer. Then it is a good time to call it out and force it to base interpretation on verbatim quotes from sources.
The LLMs (and ChatGPT in particular) are just so much quicker to find you relevant sources and the relevant part in the sources. You just need to guide it the right way.
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [December 4, 2025, 3:38pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3808 "2025-12-04T15:38:44Z")
“The largest cumulative losses before young/start-up companies turned a profit compared with cash burn for OpenAI and Anthropic based on media reports”
([Source](https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1996595595184579003?s=20))
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### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [December 4, 2025, 4:09pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3809 "2025-12-04T16:09:49Z")
You know it is bad when the chart cries for a log scale!
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### Author:  [@justbob](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/justbob)
#### Post date: [December 4, 2025, 4:33pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3810 "2025-12-04T16:33:39Z")
Given the Anthropic/OpenAI difference I’ve recently been wondering if AI has a problem or just OpenAI has a problem.
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [December 4, 2025, 4:35pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3811 "2025-12-04T16:35:19Z")
😉
I’ll see myself out.
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### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [December 4, 2025, 5:34pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3812 "2025-12-04T17:34:02Z")
That said when was the last time a company reached 800M users + became a company name in 3y?
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### Author:  [@Obbiia](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Obbiia)
#### Post date: [December 5, 2025, 11:36am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3813 "2025-12-05T11:36:14Z")
Is this chart for real, I.e. has anybody ever done this using their own nalysis?
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### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [December 5, 2025, 12:17pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3814 "2025-12-05T12:17:25Z")
Various investment firms do this kind of analysis. Here’s a recent one by Morgan Stanley:
([Source](https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/insights/articles/remain-focused-on-quality-in-todays-concentrated-market.html))
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### Author:  [@Obbiia](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Obbiia)
#### Post date: [December 5, 2025, 1:20pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3815 "2025-12-05T13:20:49Z")
This correlation looks uncannigly good. Hard to argue for stock investments nowadays looking at this.
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### Author:  [@markus654](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/markus654)
#### Post date: [December 5, 2025, 1:28pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3816 "2025-12-05T13:28:00Z")
> We gave 5 LLMs $100K to trade stocks for 8 months
> **[AI Trade Arena](https://www.aitradearena.com/research/we-ran-llms-for-8-months)**
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### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [December 5, 2025, 1:36pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3817 "2025-12-05T13:36:32Z")
> [@Obbiia](#):
>
> This correlation looks uncannigly good. Hard to argue for stock investments nowadays looking at this.
When you have something with better risk-adjusted returns in the long term please come and tell us.
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### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [December 5, 2025, 1:38pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3818 "2025-12-05T13:38:27Z")
> [@Mirager](#):
>
> risk-adjusted returns in the long term
This is the thing, we are not talking about the ‘long term’ we are talking about the next 10 years. That might not be the same thing as ‘long term’ for some people.
As for what could be better, or at least to diversify, I’ve been putting my money into gold/precious metals, and related mining companies. Recently also oil companies (but I think it is really too early for oil).
---
### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [December 5, 2025, 1:48pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3819 "2025-12-05T13:48:30Z")
Sorry, had to!
(OO meant to be the infinity symbol)
Edit: 10 years is pretty long term even for academic purposes, I was unmarried and had no kids 10 years ago, in 10 years my kids will be adults. Plus we’ve gone over the “keeping investing pulls you out of the hole in 1/2-1/4 of the time from ATH to ATH” practically every single day!
Edit 2: But what about Japan? 😛 Then diversification in geographies and asset classes is the answer (as you know super well)!
Sorry, cranky, whole family is ill!
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