# Chronicles of 2025
**URL:** https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293
**Category:** Investing / Others
**Created:** [January 22, 2025, 10:21am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293 "2025-01-22T10:21:49Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 182
### Author:  [@Tony1337](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Tony1337)
#### Post date: [November 22, 2025, 5:55pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3760 "2025-11-22T17:55:25Z")
I use CGPT free, and Copilot I get from my company.
At this stage I probably wouldn‘t sunscribe yet to any service. It‘s still too hit and miss, and for the occasional questions I have, free is basically enough.
---
### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [November 22, 2025, 6:06pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3761 "2025-11-22T18:06:25Z")
> [@Tony1337](#):
>
> occasional questions I have, free is basically enough.
FWIW, having access to paid tiers at work, the difference seems enormous to me. (if you’re willing to wait 10-30s to get an answer, but then the answer is likely correct)
---
### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [November 22, 2025, 6:19pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3762 "2025-11-22T18:19:42Z")
I also run some models locally. I used one to solve a math problem. It was great to set it running and come back in 5 minutes and watch it churn out 40k tokens of reasoning. I even found the right answer in the middle of it!
---
### Author:  [@assemblyrequired](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/assemblyrequired)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2025, 1:41pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3763 "2025-11-23T13:41:25Z")
Perplexity – [subscription (free)](https://www.perplexity.ai/join/p/paypal-subscription) is missing 😉
---
### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2025, 1:58pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3764 "2025-11-23T13:58:45Z")
It is there, I used it. Although I mine was technically not a free subscription but one I got free with a Sunrise offer. I will not renew it once the free sub runs out.
---
### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2025, 3:20pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3765 "2025-11-23T15:20:31Z")
If you’re interested in a short and refreshing Sunday evening read, I recommend David Einhorn’s Q3 investment letter. Finally found the full letter here: [Qlet2025-03.pdf](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/vz0k279wf7bfugn387770/Qlet2025-03.pdf?rlkey=knj1wtfup8no8eblr0xxqijjo&e=4&st=requ8lu7&dl=0)
I’ve already quoted from this letter (on loss-making $1 customer revenue that cascades into more than $8 of aggregate AI revenue across the supply chain) on this forum (in post [Chronicles of 2025 - #3528 by Your\_Full\_Name](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3528)).
Here’s a different teaser quote from that letter:
> McKinsey & Company estimates cumulative total spending of $6.7 trillion on data centers
> globally through 2030, including $5.2 trillion in capital expenditures on those equipped to handle AI processing. But where will the nearly $7 trillion come from? In 2024, before the major ramp-up in capital spending, the Magnificent 7 generated about $500 billion in combined cash flow. Roughly half went to buybacks and dividends, about a third to capital spending, and the small remainder was split among M&A, debt repayment, and cash accumulation. Even if they cut buybacks and dividends, the Magnificent 7 can’t do the whole AI spend without taking on a lot of leverage.
>
> The total book equity of the Magnificent 7 is about $1 trillion. Unspent dry powder in the
> private equity and venture capital industries stands at roughly $2.5 trillion and $300 billion, respectively. Wall Street’s biggest year for IPOs and secondary offerings raised about $300 billion. Even if all this capital were dedicated to AI investment, it would still leave a multi-trillion-dollar gap – one that would need to be filled through debt and leases. For context, the record year for U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt issuance was $1.2 trillion.
>
> And what about the revenue that might create a return on such a massive investment? Today, total global annual advertising spend is about $1 trillion, while all paid subscriptions in media, software, cloud, and related services accumulate to another $1 trillion.
>
> According to Bain & Company, AI revenues would need to reach $2 trillion by 2030 to generate an adequate return on the AI investment. In other words, that would be about 100% of today’s global advertising and subscriptions combined.
>
> Something has to give.
---
### Author:  [@user137](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/user137)
#### Post date: [November 24, 2025, 6:47am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3766 "2025-11-24T06:47:41Z")
> [@anon17469660](#):
>
> Something has to give.
McKinsey daily rates, probably.
If they estimate such numbers and **will go** into DC build instead of saying that these are **aspirational numbers** that don’t look realistic in the long run.
---
### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [November 24, 2025, 8:14am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3767 "2025-11-24T08:14:28Z")
> [@anon17469660](#):
>
> Here’s a different teaser quote from that letter:
Here’s another:
> The Greenlight Capital funds (the “Partnerships”) returned -3.6% in the third quarter of 2025, net of fees and expenses, compared to 8.1% for the S&P 500 index, bringing our year-to-date return to 0.4%, compared to 14.8% for the index
---
### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [November 24, 2025, 8:24pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3768 "2025-11-24T20:24:54Z")
Ouch Novo ☹
---
### Author:  [@dbu](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/dbu)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 5:14am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3769 "2025-11-25T05:14:07Z")
It’s easy, just BTFD
(But wear gloves)
---
### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 6:06am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3770 "2025-11-25T06:06:25Z")
Nah, among key issues is a non-diverse pipeline. Not saying they can’t or won’t turn it around but they’re in deep trouble now. They’re probably in Bayer territory now. I can’t invest in pharma anyway.
---
### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 8:00am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3771 "2025-11-25T08:00:47Z")
If it drops further, it should find some technical support around $30 and $37.
---
### Author:  [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 9:20am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3772 "2025-11-25T09:20:35Z")
Dunno, what’s technical support? The pipeline has some interesting assets and the company has enough good meds on diabetes/weight loss and adjacent areas (and knows diabetes better than anyone on the planet) that it can churn and make money either way, however I doubt it’ll soar again any time soon.
---
### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 10:30am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3773 "2025-11-25T10:30:54Z")
It’s a bit like tea leaves but less messy.
---
### Author:  [@markus654](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/markus654)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 11:00am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3774 "2025-11-25T11:00:26Z")
Perplexity has the greatest value for me because it offers a wide variety of third-party models, including GPT, Sonar, Gemini, Grok, Claude, etc. for one flat price.
[https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10354919-what-advanced-ai-models-are-included-in-my-subscription](https://www.perplexity.ai/help-center/en/articles/10354919-what-advanced-ai-models-are-included-in-my-subscription)
---
### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 11:28am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3775 "2025-11-25T11:28:59Z")
Hmm. I just checked. I didn’t realise my Pro subscription came with $5 per month of API credits that I have been leaving unused!
---
### Author:  [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 4:32pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3776 "2025-11-25T16:32:01Z")
> [@Mirager](#):
>
> Dunno, what’s technical support?
If it drops further, it should find ~~some~~ technical support ~~around $30 and $37~~ at $0.
😉
---
### Author:  [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 8:04pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3777 "2025-11-25T20:04:38Z")
> [@Abs\_max](#):
>
> BTW looking at Gold rally, it feels like something very strange / bad is ongoing and we just don’t see it
I didn’t realize the amount of gold tether was buying (more than many central banks)
> Based on the 116 tonnes of gold indicated in its end-September reserves attestation, Tether is “the largest holder of gold outside central banks”
([Client Challenge](https://www.ft.com/content/37f80249-2ca0-4369-9898-bde2689d443a))
---
### Author:  [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 8:10pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3778 "2025-11-25T20:10:39Z")
Interesting that they chose Switzerland.
---
### Author:  [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)
#### Post date: [November 25, 2025, 8:21pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3779 "2025-11-25T20:21:18Z")
I thought stablecoins were supposed to be backed by US treasury. Didn’t realise they can buy gold too
[Previous page](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293.md?page=181)
[Next page](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293.md?page=183)