# Chronicles of 2025 **URL:** \ **Category:** Investing / Others\ **Created:** [January 22, 2025, 10:21am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293 "2025-01-22T10:21:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 152
**Author:** ![ternes11](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/t/cab0a1/32.png) [@ternes11](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/ternes11)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2025, 7:03pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3146 "2025-09-08T19:03:27Z")
4th PM in 2 years, I guess it was expected. French equity markets with little reaction, but they are mostly exposed to international markets. Bond markets on the other hand tell a different story. Spread of french compared to german bonds rose sharply last month, over five years even more ([source](https://www.borsaitaliana.it/obbligazioni/spread/francia/oat-bund.en.htm)). ---
**Author:** ![nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/nabalzbhf/32/3277_2.png) [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2025, 7:41pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3147 "2025-09-08T19:41:42Z")
> [@Mirager](#): > > market doesn’t seem to care No new information, the news was when the vote was announced (everyone knew it wouldn’t pass, in practice asking for the vote was akin to resigning). ---
**Author:** ![anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/13edae/32.png) [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 11:08am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3148 "2025-09-09T11:08:43Z")
> [@Mirager](#): > > market doesn’t seem to care France’s 10Y yield went up, now above Italy’s (for the first time since the Euro was launched). Thankfully, Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” will serve as a backstop. ---
**Author:** ![anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/13edae/32.png) [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 11:26am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3149 "2025-09-09T11:26:43Z")
“Just remember. No matter what happens today, 70 million working Americans will still be buying [$NVDA](https://x.com/search?q=%24NVDA&src=cashtag_click) every month, whether they realize it or not.” ![GzVTzkia4AAMxTs](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/uploads/default/original/3X/a/e/ae1fdb3081d6615d4bc2389478f3efa3bec6ab92.jpeg)                          — [Tier1 Alpha](https://x.com/t1alpha/status/1960710897837728066) ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 12:09pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3150 "2025-09-09T12:09:36Z")
If you look closely and do your own research, y’all know this time is really different. ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 12:09pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3151 "2025-09-09T12:09:53Z")
This will be crazy when it reverses. Isn’t the reversal meant to take place in 2026-2027 as the boomers retire and outflows will start outpacing new contributions? It will be very different when an unrelenting bid becomes an unrelenting ask. ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 12:21pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3152 "2025-09-09T12:21:52Z")
Nah, no outflows, boomers will live on margin. And so will their heirs. Ponzi FTW. ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 1:12pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3153 "2025-09-09T13:12:58Z")
> [@PhilMongoose](#): > > This will be crazy when it reverses. Isn’t the reversal meant to take place in 2026-2027 as the boomers retire and outflows will start outpacing new contributions? > > It will be very different when an unrelenting bid becomes an unrelenting ask. If I could trust that I wouldn’t lose my job unless I made a major f-up, and that I’d find a job sending a letter in the classifieds adds within 1-2 days, and I’d get a livable pension in a livable age I wouldn’t invest a dime. Would be like my parents: make 100, spend 99. Not like their friends who made 100 and spent 120. But since we don’t live in Old Economy Steve’s world…need to take the risk for the hope of a chance to have a decent life before 70. ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 2:15pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3154 "2025-09-09T14:15:27Z")
> [@JEPG](#): > > Nah, no outflows, boomers will live on margin. US RMDs will force withdrawals. ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 2:22pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3155 "2025-09-09T14:22:38Z")
Not everything I write deserves an answer 😉 ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 2:32pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3156 "2025-09-09T14:32:27Z")
Is this still a thing the do-your-own-research hype? As in “hey I don’t get why I should invest in your shitcoin, I can’t get the value it holds” “bro, I have no time explaining it to you, that’s the new thing, do your own research” ---
**Author:** ![anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/13edae/32.png) [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 2:39pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3157 "2025-09-09T14:39:47Z")
How do you fellow kids like this gem? ![image](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/uploads/default/original/3X/e/1/e1be6835c25bd5d8abcaabd6c414bdf84c20a468.png) ([Source](https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1965360538789286071)) * * * Not sure exactly what currencies Sven calculated this with (probably DXY). I ran some numbers in CHF and not surprised arrived at **-2.2%**. Season with inflation to taste. 👌 SPY on Dec 31 2024: - USD 586.08 - CHF 531.69 (CHF 1 = USD 1.1023) SPY on Sep 9 2025, about now: - USD 649.16 - CHF 516.11 (CHF 1 = USD 1.2578) SPY dividends till the end of July 2025 - USD 3.457 - let’s call it CHF 3, throw in a generous 84 _centimes_ to the first nine September days, total of CHF 4. (520-531.69)/531.69 = -2.2% * * * VT must be even worse\* … \* Just triggering all the hedging guys to crawl out of their holes 😉 ---
**Author:** ![afstand](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/afstand/32/15439_2.png) [@afstand](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/afstand)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 3:19pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3158 "2025-09-09T15:19:45Z")
> [@anon17469660](#): > > Thankfully, Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” will serve as a backstop. I wonder what the implications for inflation would be. I see the dilemma facing the ECB. If inflation rises (which is a possibility, not a certainty, although I personally believe the likelihood of sustained inflation above 2%, or even 3%, is greater than 50%), then under its “whatever it takes” approach, the ECB would have limited room to raise rates. Doing so could worsen the situation in France and Italy, potentially even leading to defaults. I have no idea whether the ECB would dare to buy French bonds to help keep the country solvent while simultaneously raising rates. Such a move would be politically charged and could effectively amount to a mutualisation of bad debt. Following this line of thought, there is a significant risk of stagflation in the Eurozone. ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 3:23pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3159 "2025-09-09T15:23:22Z")
> [@afstand](#): > > I have no idea whether the ECB would dare to buy French bonds to help keep the country solvent while simultaneously raising rates. Such a move would be politically charged and could effectively amount to a mutualisation of bad debt. A Greek is chuckling in the corner here. ---
**Author:** ![anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/letter_avatar_proxy/v4/letter/a/13edae/32.png) [@anon17469660](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/anon17469660)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 3:55pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3160 "2025-09-09T15:55:19Z")
> [@afstand](#): > > I see the dilemma facing the ECB Well, thankfully we have an absolutely non-political and neutral expert technocrat heading the ECB. ![image](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/uploads/default/original/3X/f/2/f25706e54da03ddff3f1a7164f078c54e67279b2.jpeg) Christine Lagarde weel ste-aire us vell ts’roo ze ruff sea a’ead. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 4:58pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3161 "2025-09-09T16:58:01Z")
> [@anon17469660](#): > > How do you fellow kids like this gem? > > ![image](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/uploads/default/original/3X/e/1/e1be6835c25bd5d8abcaabd6c414bdf84c20a468.png) My first thought was: “Is Anchorman now a stock analyst?” > [@anon17469660](#): > > I ran some numbers in CHF and not surprised arrived at **-2.2%**. > Season with inflation to taste. 👌 That makes me feel better about my 8.8% YTD CHF performance. 😎 ---
**Author:** ![Quack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/quack/32/6971_2.png) [@Quack](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Quack)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 6:47pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3162 "2025-09-09T18:47:46Z")
I guess this would cause PE ratios to fall to something more reasonable which would not be a bad thing necessarily. If earnings remain the same but PE ratio falls from ~30 to ~15 then VT would yield around 3.5% dividends per year 🙂 I guess the downside for the real economy is that companies who rely on raising capital by selling stock will have less ability to do so. ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2025, 8:51pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3163 "2025-09-09T20:51:28Z")
> [@Quack](#): > > I guess this would cause PE ratios to fall to something more reasonable which would not be a bad thing necessarily. Well, it would be good if you are young and early accumulating. It could be a disaster for you if you are retired and were planning on spending that down in retirement. ---
**Author:** ![Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/abs_max/32/12379_2.png) [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2025, 5:45am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3164 "2025-09-10T05:45:09Z")
The Swiss franc sitting in UBS savings outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2025, 6:46am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3165 "2025-09-10T06:46:46Z")
2025 isn’t over yet! See also this poll: > [@Stick or twist?](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/stick-or-twist/15850): > > If you could go back in time to the start of this year and transfer part of your stock holdings to pillar 2, would you do it? [poll](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/stick-or-twist/15850/1) Now, if you could go back to the beginning of the year and transfer some US stock allocation to non-US allocation, would you do it? [poll](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/stick-or-twist/15850/1) We went from -10% to +10% YTD but still negative in CHF terms. I’ve been selling to pay the next tranche into Pillar 2… [Previous page](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293.md?page=151) [Next page](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293.md?page=153)