# Chronicles of 2025 **URL:** \ **Category:** Investing / Others\ **Created:** [January 22, 2025, 10:21am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293 "2025-01-22T10:21:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 149
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 6:45am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3077 "2025-08-27T06:45:51Z")
> [@markus654](#): > > Won’t that create a dangerous bubble in the long term? It’s creating the bubble now. It will reverse when inflows turn into outflows e.g. when people retire. Maybe FIRE adherents will be at an advantage as they will get out earlier. Since demographics are trashed now, we can’t keep it going as a pyramid scheme as the base is shrinking (fewer kids/workers). ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 8:04am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3078 "2025-08-27T08:04:44Z")
> [@cubanpete\_the\_swiss](#): > > Nice article. Burry, though he’s smarter and richer than most, appears to be a classic case of a one trick pony. I’ll wait for other more knowledgeable people to tell us what’s the cutoff for passive investing removing price discovery from equity markets, and don’t have the time to look at Ben Felix’s relevant video, but I remember the tl:dr version being “the moment passive investing causes real inefficiencies in the market they’d be near instantly exploited by active investors, and efficiency will return, and we’re far from it anyway”. Going back to my point above, I can’t help but wonder if Burry just longs for a crash so he can come up and say “told you so, _like I did in 2008_”, ---
**Author:** ![cubanpete\_the\_swiss](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/cubanpete_the_swiss/32/15446_2.png) [@cubanpete\_the\_swiss](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/cubanpete_the_swiss)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 8:12am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3079 "2025-08-27T08:12:41Z")
> [@Mirager](#): > > instantly exploited by active investors, and efficiency will return, and we’re far from it anyway I am not so sure that is true. Because how would that happen with overpriced and over represented companies in the holy grail? Short sales not a common strategy and carry additional risks. Look at Tesla. It is still a very big part of many ETF but individual investors in those ETF probably would not buy it. But they buy it in their ETF and therefor the price finding is troubled. ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 8:20am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3080 "2025-08-27T08:20:26Z")
Dunno, that’s why I am referring to authority, weak argument, I am aware! Would need to see growth of passive investing via US pensions (401(k)) in the recent years - I’d expect it to be big and having grown rapidly since covid, a good signal of bubbling and over exuberance indeed - vs active investing, and do a counterfactual for a scenario where that money was invested actively or used to buy crap on Temu. And still, it’s a chicken and egg situation: exuberance wouldn’t exist if we weren’t in a very long tech bull run… Exactly because I have no answers, or appetite to take the steering wheel, I just ride along like so many others. edit: couldn’t read the article due to paywall. ---
**Author:** ![nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/nabalzbhf/32/3277_2.png) [@nabalzbhf](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/nabalzbhf)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 8:32am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3081 "2025-08-27T08:32:09Z")
Isn’t the worry in the article about liquidity? (I think the non collapse of bund funds in 2020 should be reassuring). ---
**Author:** ![xmj](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/xmj/32/9471_2.png) [@xmj](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/xmj)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 8:46am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3082 "2025-08-27T08:46:54Z")
> [@cubanpete\_the\_swiss](#): > > Why do we have to have this conversation every 10 minutes. Because my portfolio gains this year got eaten by USD depreciation ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 8:55am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3083 "2025-08-27T08:55:10Z")
> [@xmj](#): > > Because my portfolio gains this year Just view it in USD terms and you will feel better 😉 ---
**Author:** ![cubanpete\_the\_swiss](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/cubanpete_the_swiss/32/15446_2.png) [@cubanpete\_the\_swiss](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/cubanpete_the_swiss)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 8:58am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3084 "2025-08-27T08:58:39Z")
> [@xmj](#): > > this year If you care for “this year” you probably should not be in the stock market at all. But even “this year”: USD/CHF YTD -10.76% SPX YTD +9.93% my momentum strategy YTD +12.06% my dividend strategy YTD +10.84% That is a storm in a glass of water, even for such a bad year like this. With dividends probably the SP500 even had a positive return. For any longer period stocks do even better and currency does not matter. What matters is the risk/return profile of your investment… ---
**Author:** ![Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/abs_max/32/12379_2.png) [@Abs\_max](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Abs_max)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 5:00pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3091 "2025-08-27T17:00:19Z")
Did everyone capture this? Not sure if this „new“ tariff is for services or goods. But seems like now White House is trying to take over tax sovereignty on digital services and dictate what other countries can or cannot do. Interesting to see export controls on Chips/ other technologies would be part of leverage. I wonder when will EU wake up to digital sovereignty and if it’s already too late “I put all Countries with Digital Taxes, Legislation, Rules, or Regulations on notice that unless these discriminatory actions are removed, I, as President of the United States, will impose substantial additional Tariffs on that Country’s Exports to the U.S.A., and institute Export restrictions on our Highly Protected Technology and Chips,” he wrote. ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 5:21pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3092 "2025-08-27T17:21:53Z")
Let’s replace everything with European tech, that does not rely on US tech, and certainly not even on open source software supported by US companies. Run on European hardware manufactured on the European continent. Our sovereignty is at stake, let’s do that NOW (capital letters trump style). Also we may replace European with Swiss for another story. Also switch the forum to schwiitzerdütsch-first, we have to avoid US language (tariff may apply soon). ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 8:23pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3093 "2025-08-27T20:23:43Z")
> [@JEPG](#): > > Quiet please, tonight is St. NVDA (happens four times a year). Aaaand… it’s a boo. (After hour price is in the dark red… at +30%-sthg level for the quarter 😂) ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2025, 9:11pm UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3094 "2025-08-27T21:11:25Z")
Really not that bad, predictions were 6.5% up or down, now it’s clearly in a plateau, will bounce back. ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2025, 6:38am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3095 "2025-08-28T06:38:19Z")
Well if you look at quarterly performance, still insane, stock and company. How long will it to last, well… Nvda is now a major concern for every index investor. 😨 But this time is different. (I’m out). ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2025, 7:24am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3096 "2025-08-28T07:24:54Z")
> [@JEPG](#): > > Well if you look at quarterly performance, still insane, stock and company. > > How long will it to last, well… Right, having paid attention to their earnings over the last 2-3 years it’s evident they were quickly going into a plateau in terms of growth. I think a gradual plateauing is not at all a bad thing. Of course the market which…in the midnight hour she cried more more more…will likely not see it this way > [@JEPG](#): > > Nvda is now a major concern for every index investor. Agree, I am thinking to put this month’s contribution and most going forward into building a Swiss position. > [@JEPG](#): > > But this time is different. (I’m out). How do you mean? ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2025, 7:44am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3097 "2025-08-28T07:44:31Z")
> [@Mirager](#): > > How do you mean? [![](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/uploads/default/original/3X/a/8/a87951f7c6579f4c1b14b1b2e331607c5792f31e.jpeg "The Most Important Quotes in Investing") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gV9r3ISZrws) Hopefully it’s explained there, I’m not 100% sure 😂 Well it’s a famous quote describing why (because _this time is different_) a bubble is not one (until it is), or why (because _this time is different_) market will not recover from a crash (most recently: COVID), until it does. ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2025, 8:32am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3098 "2025-08-28T08:32:44Z")
So you’ve gone to cash? ---
**Author:** ![JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/jepg/32/19358_2.png) [@JEPG](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/JEPG)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2025, 8:44am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3099 "2025-08-28T08:44:27Z")
Yes, selling and going to cash while it’s near ATH, and then I’ll buy the dip again. It’s that easy, I don’t get why people make a fuss about it. More seriously, I think there is also a quote about setting up a strategy and sticking to it. Or embrace the fact you become an active-active investor and act on your portfolio allocation depending on seasonal events. good luck 🙂 Setting up the strategy might not be a one time thing though, you’re learning over time about finance and yourself, risk tolerance, portfolio size may evolve as well as non-financial events in your personal life. So if you think now stacking up Swiss stocks is a good choice, ensure you are convinced it is long term for your strategy and goal. ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2025, 8:58am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3100 "2025-08-28T08:58:02Z")
I saw the video over the weekend, I think, and fully agree with the point about setting up a strategy. I was genuine about the question of going to cash, never done it myself, though. Somewhere in there there’s Peter Lynch’s quip about more money having been lost waiting for corrections than in the corrections themselves 😉 > [@JEPG](#): > > Setting up the strategy might not be a one time thing though, you’re learning over time about finance and yourself, risk tolerance, portfolio size may evolve as well as non-financial events in your personal life. Fully agree! > [@JEPG](#): > > So if you think now stacking up Swiss stocks is a good choice, ensure you are convinced it is long term for your strategy and goal. So that’s where it probably gets woolly: the way I see it is that having CHF is never a bad thing, I am overweight in US and USD and want to change that while remaining liquid (ie no Pillars), so I’ve been pondering getting SLICHA and CHDVD as they’re both equity, give nice dividends (let’s not get into the tax implications, I know them) and believe (that’s where the conviction comes in) that holding them for a long time somewhat equates to holding CHF with potential for long-term upside (that’s where it gets woolly). ---
**Author:** ![PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/philmongoose/32/12331_2.png) [@PhilMongoose](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/PhilMongoose)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2025, 9:21am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3101 "2025-08-28T09:21:12Z")
> [@Mirager](#): > > I was genuine about the question of going to cash, never done it myself I’m essentially doing that as I sell down parts of the portfolio to pay into my pension scheme in the run up to retirement. Don’t you guys have emergency fund and/or some cash component in your asset allocation? ---
**Author:** ![Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/user_avatar/forum.mustachianpost.com/mirager/32/12344_2.png) [@Mirager](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/u/Mirager)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2025, 9:25am UTC](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293/3102 "2025-08-28T09:25:54Z")
> [@PhilMongoose](#): > > Don’t you guys have emergency fund and/or some cash component in your asset allocation? Got about 1 month’s salary in cash at hand at any given time, 3 months compensation by contract in the event of being fired, plus 1.5 years of RAV _should_ count as a sizeable cash buffer? Edit: know this is not asset allocation. [Previous page](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293.md?page=148) [Next page](https://forum.mustachianpost.com/t/chronicles-of-2025/15293.md?page=150)