Benchmark update:
As a benchmark of the global stocks market I use “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI. These data can be downloaded from MSCI website using a non-obvious procedure presented before.
Besides the nominal value, I also look at the inflation-adjusted data. To do the inflation adjustment, I divide the value in nominal CHF by the last known value of “Landesindex der Konsumentenpreise (LIK)” (“Swiss CPI”). That means, to allow “real-time” analysis of data, during a running month I use LIK for the previous month. For the last (week)day of a month, I use LIK for that month. Usually it takes few days to be calculated and published, but this procedure is more consistent with the historical analysis of inflation-adjusted stock market returns. So I effectively do both “real-time” and “historical” analysis in one table. The exact reference date of LIK that I use is not relevant, because for inflation-adjusted data I only look at relative changes.
This time LIK for January 2025 took longer than usual to release, so I was also waiting for it.
LIK status:
LIK for January 2025 went down -0.053% vs. the value for December 2024 and -0.85% below the peak value for June 2024. The 12m change was +0.4%. This is the lowest 12m change of LIK after April 2021!!!
Market Benchmark status:
The latest ATH of 2278.7 CHF nominal was reached yesterday, 13.02.2025. The YTD gains are +4.6% in nominal and +4.7% in inflation-adjusted CHF.
Despite what you might have read, the benchmark movements since the beginning of the year were rather subdued. The YTD change in 2025 was never negative. I noticed that in fact strong movements of the benchmark (or VT) value in USD were countered by USDCHF movements: when stocks were going up, USDCHF was going down and vice versa. Since the beginning of November 2024 there were never significant drawdowns, the strongest was -2.8% from December 16 to 19, 2024.
Furthermore, since March 2024 we had 9 new ATHs in nominal terms, and I am not counting occasions when they were clustered next to each other! They occurred on 27.03.2024, 22.05.2024, 16.07.2024, 11.11.2024, 22.11.2024, 04.12.2024, 16.12.2024, 23.01.2025 and 13.02.2025.
In a broader context, on February 19th will be a 5 year anniversary of the pre-COVID ATH (according to the benchmark employed). As per 13.02.2025, the benchmark is +49.4% in nominal and +40.7% in inflation-adjusted CHF from it.
You will probably hear from me next month.
元博士