Feels like a time for a benchmark update, before we are, probably, heading into turbulence.
My benchmark of the global stocks market is “MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI. To adjust it for the inflation, I divide its value in CHF by the value of “Landesindex der Konsumentenpreise (LIK)” (“Swiss CPI”) for the previous month.
Previously on “Chronicles of Fat Years” (season 2024-2027):
16.07.2024: The benchmark reaches a new ATH at 2121.76 CHF nominal! The YTD gain is +22.1% in nominal CHF, +20.3% in inflation-adjusted CHF.
“Falling, I’m falling”: Panic in the markets! The minimum of benchmark is on 5.8.2024 at 1843.76 CHF nominal. The decline from ATH is -13.1% nominal and -12.9% inflation-adjusted, corresponding to “usual” Correction territory. YTD it is +6.1% in nominal CHF, +4.7% in inflation-adjusted CHF.
After that things were rather boring.
19.08.2024: intermediate maximum at 2030.22 CHF nominal. -4.3% nominal / -4.1% inflation-adjusted from ATH, +16.8% nominal / +15.3% inflation-adjusted YTD, +10.1% from the minimum on 5.8.2024. Normal regime.
LIK for August goes down a bit.
06.09.2024: intermediate minimum at 1928.95 CHF nominal. -9.1% nominal / -8.8% inflation-adjusted from ATH, +11% nominal / +9.6% inflation-adjusted YTD, -5%/-4.9% from the maximum on 19.08.2024. Mild correction.
LIK for September goes down rather sharply (well, for LIK).
Then, a funny thing happened:
18.10.2024: the benchmark in nominal terms reaches a new intermediate maximum at 2117.05 CHF. -0.2% from ATH, +21.8% YTD, +9.8% from the minimum on 06.09.2024.
However, the inflation-adjusted benchmark, which typically, and long-term always, lags behind the nominal one, reaches a new ATH with +20.7% YTD gain.
I thought that it is a matter of one or two more days until the nominal benchmark also reaches a new ATH, but market gods decided to play with me. The markets went down.
As per 31.10.2024, after the Halloween sell-off, the nominal benchmark stands at 2055.55 CHF, -3.1% from ATH, +18.3% YTD and -2.9% from the maximum on 18.10.2024. Very normal, despite of what you may feel.
The inflation-adjusted benchmark stands at -2.9% from ATH and +17.2% YTD.
Stay tuned for the next episode!
元艺人