The rally that have started from the 26.10.2023 bottom had a strong move yesterday, after running for four months. My benchmark was stalling for a week and I was starting to have an impression that hot air liquidity that had inflated it have moved to crypto. But it still looks like there is enough of it for both.
My benchmark, "MSCI ACWI IMI Net Total Return in CHF” as calculated by MSCI, had marked 1923.15 CHF in nominal terms, a level not seen since the end of 2021. It is only -1.3% from the previous ATH (1947.97 CHF, on 16.11.2021), +26.3% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, +20.3% from the 26.10.2023 bottom and +10.6% YTD.
Assuming the same CPI/LIK for Switzerland as in January (the new month has started, so, according to my methodology I would have to use the level for February), on inflation-adjusted basis it is -5.7% from the previous ATH, +24.5% from the 30.09.2022 bottom, and 10.4% YTD.
Will the latest stocks rally last for another month? Will we fall from the “normal” market state to the “correction” without reaching a new ATH this time? Stay tuned for an update in a few weeks!
PI.