Any Stockpickers out there?

Aha, yes, ALWAYS critical to look at the standard lot size to avoid surprises. Also, I run the math in excel before I communicate any options trade instruction as lot sizes, FX, etc. can get confusing.

It’s simple math, nothing complicated (premium, exposure, etc) but double checking is important:)

Yes that is true. However, I feel that in the UK market with prices being in pence it complicates things. Even for simply buying stocks (which I did in the end for the BHP stocks) I have to calculate it twice to ensure that I buy the right amount.

Prof. Damodoran offers a rather balanced view of SpaceX. According to his latest analysis and sentiment, a price of $100 per share would be reasonable (41:00)

Alright, I’ve run into a business called Octave - active in a very interesting space: Mission-critical software for actionable intelligence | Octave

  • Spin-off from Hexagon (a company I’ve admired) and only recently with a stock exchange listing as a result
  • Currently low growth as they transition from license fee based revenues to subscription revenues… past 2 years subscriptions have gone from 50%+ to mid 60% - once this transition reaches stabilization, I’d anticipate growth to normalize - if SaaS/ARR keeps growing high-single to low-double digits and the perpetual-license drag fades, reported revenue growth should move from low-single digits toward management’s 6–8% mid-term target
  • 30%+ EBITDA = very nice
  • PE ratio of around 12 (post-spin-off price discovery has seen the share price move from 22 to 25 to 17 where it is now). Price multiple on cashflow is 10.
  • 1.6B revenues (60% of Fortune 500 companies are customers)
  • 1.2 debt/ebitda = modest
  • No dividend

With $5B market cap, it’s a kind of ‘below the radar screen’ stock for most people. Frankly speaking, this looks cheap. It also looks like a potential acquisition candidate (e.g. a player like Honeywell). And I’ve seen businesses like this spin-off and share price SOARING once liberated from their mother company (I could imagine a company like this could also expand well with acquisitions).

Anybody want to shoot holes at the idea? I’ve not (yet) taken a position. No options trading possible either.

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Not a stock picker myself. Not that I do I want to shoot ideas.

But I feel like I have some sense of smelling when it is just not right.

This looks a bit like a low-growth software spin-off wanting to transition to SaaS. Looks like a value trap that will burn cash long before it ever gets acquired.

Where is the bear case in your scenario, if any?

What is or would be your initial position, aka any skin in the game?

That’s exactly what it is:) Re value trip

  • I agree with it having an affordable
  • The question is whether it’s a trap or not? If growth indeed accelerates once the transition to SaaS is over, then hallelujah. If not, then they can still increase dividends big time which would also be fine.
  • Bear case… they currently serve 60% of Fortune 500 already… is that their natural limit? If so, it’s just a milk the cow business rather than the cow itself growing. They could address this with bolt-on acquisitions given that their core business is so engrained in critical processes with end-customers (which normally justifies a premium multiple).
  • I’m surprised the business hasn’t rerated up yet on multiple post-IPO

I still don’t have a position and anticipat there’s no rush needed as I assume valuation improvement will come gradually. Still, current dip may be nice. I’m going to review things in more detail and may just start with a 10-25k position and build from there over time.

Accenture is an interesting one. Severely hit due to AI… will it be hit further or has the share price punishment been vastly overstated?

Either way, i suspect high volatility and there is an opportunity here to make money.

I feel there’s a long term opportunity, but I do wonder about whether there will be short term challenges from pressure on consulting spend.

Accenture and Cognizant are the best bet against AGI…

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Same here

And Accenture will get hammered once the near term AI bubble bursts given so much of their current work is on AI

That impact will be on their clients, not on Accenture. They will just need to re-brand their bench… if AGI emerges, Accenture is toast. If the bubble bursts, I believe that they will be back big time…

When clients do less projects focused on AI → less work for ACN

and i am not sure there will be other projects / solutions to backfill it - it may result (also under influence from AI on the consulting headcount model) a major and permanent fte reduction at Accenture

i start to look at software at those prices, MSFT, SAP and Adobe are well worth to scale in.. no?

IMO, yes. Bought ADBE, INTU, CRM yesterday.

In the red on all of them…

Ticker Yield %MV
CRM 1.1% 5.5%
ADBE 2.8%
HUBS 2.1%
INTU 1.9% 2.1%
WDAY 1.8%
PAYC 1.2% 1.5%
DOCU 1.1%
NOW 0.9%
Selected 0.7% 17.9%

SaaS now about 18% of my portfolio - up from 0% at the start of the year. Ironically the smallest position (NOW) is the only one in the green. Rest are deep red.

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