Any Stockpickers out there?

Exactement! A rising tide lifts all boats :wink:

And conveniently will allow him to keep control when SpaceX will inevitably propose a merger with Tesla. (He’s pretty annoyed not having control of Tesla)

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I read SpaceX is also used to prop up Tesla cybertruck sales… at full MSRP

Chaebol-like

i’ll pass

It’s gonna be a game of “sell higher to the next stupid”, hardly mustachian, but definitely going to happen (just look at TSLA on Fastgraphs).

I’ll pass.

I put even more money in XOVR and will buy end of year more of SpaceX directly.

Don‘t invest what you can afford to lose - especially with Elon :smiley:

No it’s sp500.
Also the big issue is that there will be billions moving around from ETFs and other entities that have to rebalance.

Pardon the AI :smiley:
The forced integration of SpaceX into the S&P 500 introduces structural risks that could trigger severe downward pressure, liquidity drains, and extreme volatility for all other stocks in the index.

If S&P Dow Jones Indices relaxes its long-standing eligibility rules to fast-track the company, index funds will be mechanically trapped into a dangerous “forced-buy-then-reversion” loop.

Because passive index funds (like VOO or SPY) are fully invested, they cannot simply use “new” cash to buy SpaceX. To make room for a projected 2% to 4% target weighting, trillions of dollars in passive ETFs will be legally forced to execute a massive, simultaneous sell-off across all other 499 companies

SpaceX is seeking an astronomical $1.75 trillion valuation, but it is only floating a tiny fraction of its total shares (an estimated $75 billion) to the public initially. Artificial Price Spikes: This supply-and-demand mismatch creates an artificial buying frenzy, temporarily driving SpaceX’s stock price to unsustainably high levels. To absorb this ballooning valuation, index funds must repeatedly sell off even more shares of all other S&P 500 stocks.

The most critical threat to the S&P 500 occurs 6 to 12 months after the IPO, when insider and employee lock-up restrictions officially expire. Mass Insiders Supply Shock: As early venture capital backers and employees aggressively sell their shares to lock in gains, SpaceX’s stock could face a massive price correction. Index Drag: Because SpaceX will hold a heavy weight in the index, a steep drop in its stock price will directly drag down the value of the entire S&P 500, penalizing long-term retirement savers.

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Doubt.
Free float weighted for most of the indices.

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Why? What‘s your investment case?

  • the company isn’t profitable
  • it won’t be profitable in the foreseeable future
  • it has no corporate governance or accountability to be taken seriously
  • run by a CEO and owner who can’t be voted out
  • who has a proven track record of failing to deliver short, medium and long-term technical goals and milestones (i.e. making stuff up out of his arse)

don’t underestimate selling to the next idiot as a strategy :slight_smile:

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Musk will use every dirty trick in the book to drive up price so him and his insiders can unload some on us. We can just hitch a ride with a dedicated exit plan. That’s my “thesis” anyway :wink:

AI day for me: Where to bet instead of SpaceX

Company Ticker Primary Business Focus Current Financial Momentum Key Catalyst to Watch
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Rocket launches & end-to-end satellite manufacturing. $2.2B backlog; revenue up 63.5% year-over-year. Neutron rocket inaugural launch.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Direct-to-cell satellite broadband network. Massive backing from major telecom carriers. Commercial rollout of cellular satellite service.
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Commercial small-to-medium launches and lunar landers. Robust $7B market cap following its public debut. Expanding government launch cadences.

I’m not a fan of AI responses. If I wanted that, I could just talk to an AI myself.

EDIT: The discussion continues here: Using AI content for forum postings

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would have a weight of around 0.1% for the s&p500 in the beginning, similar to Nike. Granted when existing investors sell their stakes free float could increase massively. Will be interesting to see if the market can absorb all those shares.

I think AI datacentres in space is by far the dumbest thing I’ve heard in this decade.

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Electricity is supposedly cheaper there because it’s closer to the sun. But I thins that’s the only pro argument :thinking:. It reminds me a bit of Microsoft’s project to submerge data centers in the ocean to save on cooling costs. It was discontinued in the mean time (or successfully completed to gather data and lean, depending on how you frame it).

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The ISS needs giant radiators to get rid of the heat (75-100kW). Datacentres will produce 1000x as much heat as the ISS. There is just no practical way of cooling that.

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I wondered about cooling too. But Elon apparently proposes it and he normally thinks through these things so I wonder what the solution is.

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citation needed

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Then there are several other problems:

  1. Orbital period is roughly 1.5 hours → 40min of which there is no sunlight at all. How do you manage that gap? With giant batteries?
  2. Radiation is deadly for electronics and you can’t just put a normal GPU/CPU into a space environment. You’ll need specialized equipment. This will cost a lot.
  3. Mass required to put all that into space will result in huge launch costs. It’s debatable if it’s even worth it with a fully reusable Starship.
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We don’t care as soon as the price goes up.

Hey, Bitcoin exists, or maybe they don’t but they have a price.

That’s the new economy.

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