What’s your strategy for the next period of time?
My tech picks are tanking like crazy and my nest egg is already of considerable size for my wellbeing, I’m not too easy seeing it fall and not stopping. And valuations were indeed high.
Are you stepping out of your positions or is everyone a master stock picker by now and all shielded from trouble?
My strategy hasn’t changed. My portfolio was already defensive and largely out of tech and I’d shifted towards gold at the start of 2024.
If you are nervous, you might have more risk than your risk tolerance allows. You might want to consider what an appropriate level is for you as if it is too much, better you sell now with a 10% loss than potentially selling in 3 months time at a 30% loss.
We currently have a fairly minor blip, so those struggling already need to make an honest assessment of how much risk they are taking. It’s easy to say you are find with risk when stocks only go up 20% each year.
We are at 87.92% of the all-time high of the SP500. That is not even bear market territory.
I have some changes that get active when we enter bear market territory, but there is still some space until then.
And yes, if you get scared of this situation you should think about how your investments match your risk tolerance.
Since mid february, I sold 3 positions partly (up to 50%) and I finished to sell one position. I opened 4 new positions that had a more attractive valuation and I reinforced 2 others that I started last year. I also trimmed some of my real estate funds to come closer to my target allocation. I am rarely that active, but that was mainly because of some assets that were too high
So what did I end up buying today? HCC, NET, ARE, OVV, FMC, AMD, WHR.
EDIT: by this morning: WAF, GOOG, BHP and TGT triggered too. BTU and CCJ are close too.
Goofy checks his portfolio again, this time sipping on a Gin & Tonic accompanied by a modest plate of cocktail snacks.
Occassionally, Goofy looks up from his phone’s IBKR app to his drink his beautiful wife before he lets his eyes wander from their seats in the shade over towards the boulevard separating them from the Ligurian sea.
Dang! His stockpicking portfolio turned negative YTD as of yesterday, down almost a percentage point since the start of 2025. Today will make things even worse!
Maybe he chose the wrong strategy after all?
Ok, those dividends have been trickling in steadily, no cuts so far this year and already 33 raises, leading to payouts YTD exceeding payouts in the same period last year by 3k … but still.
Goofy is close to growing another gray hair by now.
Probably best to wash away these worries with another Gin & Tonic … or maybe a Negroni fits better with all these red colors on stockmarket heatmaps?
Negroni it is! Goofy and his leash holder relocate to a bar on the Piazza Vittorio Emmanuele II.
This, too, shall pass, Goofy tells himself as he takes a sip from his Negroni.
We noticed him, too.
He’s already adjusted his lifestyle by moving to sipping on a coke.
Man. I’ve been fixing my bike the the last few hours and came back to check IBKR to discover that more buy orders (we up months ago) have triggered (now I also bought CCJ and CNR).
My gains had already been wiped out. Today all my deposits this year have been wiped out too including 3 months of salary and my bonus. Ouch.
Also now in 50k of margin debt. Not sure if I carry it or find something to sell to offset it. I think CAOS is the only thing that is currently up in my portfolio (today). I think I’ll wait it out.
Bought some ES today.*
Was eyeing ARE as well, but it’s already an overfull position in my portfolio.
What about CROX?
I think my buying is more or less done. The only buy order that I have that is close to current price is BHP. If that triggers, then buy orders are finished.
Sadly, none of my sell orders got triggered before the big dips started.
And some more obscure financial stocks for my momentum corner: Bancolombia (CIB) and Donegal (DGICA). Loaded on banks and insurance, feels like 3 years ago when I was full of residential construction companies. Let’s hope this turns out the same.
This might be the last buys for some time as we are about to enter bear market territory. SP500 is at 82.54% of its last high.
Bought a pair this week. In black.
With everything being sold off indiscriminately, now should be the stockpicker’s time to shine!
Actually it is still a bit early. But true, I made most money after a bear market. Nasdaq is already in bear territory, SP500 still at 82.54% of last high. One more down day? We will see. The discussion of a free trade zone with Europe will have its effect I suppose.
The actual problems are not fundamental and have an expiration date.
I think it has to do with pain tolerance. Many newbies only have seen beautiful stock markets and will probably sell to me in a panic. Thanks…
And the beauty of it: you don’t even need to be a very good stock picker. Everything falls now and everything will raise later.
Upsetting the last 70 years’ world order, making enemies out of allies, aligning with historical enemies, losing trust across the board seems pretty fundamental to me.
Of course realpolitik may lead to everyone just turning a blind eye and getting back to business at the earliest opportunity.
In that case you can make money on the down leg by shorting.
The main change I foresee if that US allies will not blindly support and trust USA and will diversify their security strategy, digital strategy and economic ties.
There is no coming back from this. No matter what happens next.
If you put yourself in position to be bullied once, then it’s a mistake. If you don’t do anything different and get bullied again in few years, then it’s insane & shameful. I don’t think world will act insanely
BTW- I find the Trump complains about trade deficit very weird. If US doesn’t even produce enough goods for their own consumption and need to import from everywhere, then what should the world buy from US? There is nothing to buy. Only thing to buy is services and that’s what the world does buy. You can’t sell what you don’t have
But you might be able to sell what you have at a higher price if you happen to have the power to force someone into a trade.
At least this is what they think.
Also, they do have things they would like to sell more. Such as Teslas. 
Quick reminder: this topic’s titled “Any Stockpickers out there?”.
Meaning, we mainly discuss stock picks.*
It’s fine to sprinkle in policy views, but please put them in the context of stocks aka companies (versus, say, the USA, or some silly politician)?
* Ok, occasionally swerving into a Gin’n’Tonic or a Negroni discussion (my mistake).
