Actually I care much for cash flow in my dividend strategy (or how I call it the MOFO home strategy). But MT I bought for my momentum strategy.
Momentum goes momentum. plus 2.39% today on the portfolio at the fortune wheel. As I said and as I want it; not much correlation with indices.
Life gets even harder: had to buy XNET at 5.02 today. I don’t understand even the language…
And of course I had to buy it on credit for my momentum strategy. I hate it. The more I hate it the more money I make, so … 
This XNET?
Well, you have my admiration especially as I could never do this myself, Master Cubanpete_Yoda.
Meow.
I got myself TNXP - but just with a very small portion 
Probably as risky as XNET, lol.
I really hate it when my system tells me to buy something shady like that. I try to find all kind of reasons not to buy it inside my rules, but there was simply none.
One has to lift up a lot of stones to find a diamond… but there are diamonds. Most of those investments start generating money after 2 years, but many don’t make it to two years.
Yesterday the strategy made 2.03% even with almost all the new investments in the red.
Well, the dip gave me a chance to double my position in NCSM. I have no idea why it is up 30% today, but hey, I’ll take it:
I other news CALM bounced beautifully off its 200 day MA. I said I’d buy if it hit the 200 day MA, but I was on my skiing holiday and so missed this 12% bounce.
Why not?
Ok, fair question, and I was probably a little too humourous on that other topic when discussing it in the Golden Hands Handcuffs topic
Still … using the hammer in my toolbox (where my hammer is the only one tool that resides in said toolbox)
This – in my book – isn’t a company with long term prospects of growing profits from looking at their history since going public. The snapshot captures operating income, which is even generous compared to looking at earnings.
Market cap is a little shy of USD 70M. In all honesty, I kind of like this, as it’s uninvestable for most professional investors, but I’m also a little … hesitant. Insiders can move the price. Like, probably a lot. Their earnings forecast …
… well, it’s not entirely shite, but it’s also not exactly hockey stick territory, and again, to me, it seems like insiders can tune pretty much all of these numbers.
So … I would not invest but I admit I am kind of very biased: I want companies paying a dividend that goes up and that isn’t at risk of being cut. Ideally over decades to come.
Seems like there is about zero overlap with NSCM.
Does that mean that NSCM is not investable (as I was suggesting)? Not at all.
Ignore Goofy’s investment advice at Goofy’s own guidance!
Up another 8% today 
TNXP had a nice performance im the last days, as well the other defense stocks I posted last time.
I have the feeling, the market will bump up a bit and then decrease further.
But some longterm stocks as META and AMD I will just buy regularly as VTI.
I think, they had several reverse splits.
I found them by coincidence on yahoo finance; when checking their pipeline and outlook I thought, it is very promising. Some earlier bets were a huge fail and some of them turned out to be very good. I would say, I am roughly at 0% gain/loss with pharma stocks.
I will give it another try, haha
So in 10 years you could have gone from $13B to $20. 
A word of caution, without a single iota of disrespect, which could well apply to EVERY company in the world, but it’s specifically relevant for pharma: “checking the pipeline” is among the things my employer and others in my field do for a living, for a hell of a lot of money, and it’s (highly) educated guesstimation and scenario planning but absolutely uncertain in the real world, as we’re dealing with humans and novel chemicals. I don’t invest in pharma companies due to contractual restrictions, but even if I didn’t have them in place I’d still be extremely reluctant to do it.
Bit more on pipelines: small/medium pharma have pipelines you can see on their websites, larger pharmas have the “real” pipeline - which you see on the website, the “deep” pipeline which you can’t, and the “hypothetical” pipeline which is closer to BD&L → where they may want to be in some years. These are highly strategic decisions where usually no single person other than the CEO and a few key leads in the company have any visibility on, and anyone - anyone - can put a great spin on a pipeline until it falls flat on its face because the drug did something nobody could foresee, the data cuts pointed to the “wrong” direction, competition blew it out the park or did a smarter/riskier/safer analysis and a myriad other reasons. I believe Buffett has said he won’t invest in pharma because it’s just too unpredictable for him. Then again J&J for instance is a dividend king and has the same credit rating as Microsoft (AAA) - the only two companies in the S&P500 with this distinction.
Edit: the number of great, dead drugs I’ve seen in 15 years is truly staggering. I’ll leave one unnamed example: a big pharma had a pipeline asset with stellar data, far far better than the competition, which is among the best selling drugs in human history. They knew they had a winner in their hands and didn’t chance it. They did everything right: the right kind of trials, the right kind of analyses and comparisons stakeholders want to see, the data looked airtight, it was going to be beautiful and they’d be in line to make tens and tens of billions per year until they abruptly killed it because very very late in the game it showed a statistically significant and virtually unheard of adverse event which made it impossible to allow to go to wide use. They didn’t even wait for the regulators (FDA, EMA) to step in and say the drug has a worrying risk, they just killed it, and it was the right thing to do.
I do invest in Pharma but make no analysis of pipelines for the reasons you mention. Rather, I invest just based on hope that the track record of established companies will be maintained.
Occassionally, I invest because the market was too bearish on loss of exclusivity events (ABBV anyone?). Or when the whole sector moves downwards as investors move from risk-off to risk-on trades.
Have been holding these for years and I have let them run. Only trimmed PLTR and NVDA in the past.
I am now thinking with the US situation to maybe sell completely some of these and invest the proceeds into my favorite ETF (SPPW).
What are your thoughts? How are you handling your US positions?
I was actually shocked by how much allocation has shifted from US to ex-US:
This view is reflected in the record rotation out of US stocks seen this month – the allocation dropped 40 percentage points to a net underweight of 23% (to the lowest allocation since June 2023).
This had a knock-on effect on the global equity allocation, which fell 29 percentage points month-on-month to a net overweight of just 6%, which is the lowest since November 2023 and the fifth largest decline on record.
It seems like a huge over-reaction to me.
A few years ago when TGT was climbing above $200, I was arguing with somebody on the internet saying that the price was crazy and was just a temporary covid effect. I was going to wait for the price to hit around $80/$90 before I would be tempted to buy.
Well, it’s hovering around $105 now, so not too far off and 200 SMA would be around $100. Metrics seem pretty good. Is this a bargain in plain sight (yes, yes let’s ignore tariff fears etc.)
Another stock is VTRS. I never really liked this much, but now that it has fallen to <$10 per share, this is attractive, right?
KHC and CAG are also starting to look tempting. I put a couple of buy orders in and the price is getting close.
